Climate change afflicted Africa, should insulate against the vulnerability which threatens food security and economic growth cost implications in excess of US$50 billion by 2030.

With climate financing for the continent seemingly far-fetched, the success of the continent’s growth blueprint, AfCFTA, is under threat, with funding prospects uncertain after the COP 29 agreed to set aside a paltry US$300 billion for all affected countries to mitigate and adapt through the Nationally Determined Contributions and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs).

The surging climatic change crisis, despite Africa’s meagre contribution of 4 percent to the overall to major permission of Green House Gases (GHGs), incomparable to Japan, United States, India, China, among other polluters, Africa’s economic growth, spurred by the AfCFTA might stall with resilience.

Studies by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa-a continental think tank call for hastened action by all players.

This is intended to ensuring resilience was enforced as global temperatures threaten food security coupled with trade wars that might frustrate trade development intended to rekindle the potential of the continent to migrate into a single market.

According to the 2025 Economic report, UNECA cites Climate change to be affecting effects Africa. This is despite contributing less than 10 per cent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions.

The continent is grossly affected by the impacts of climate change and is the least equipped to mitigate its negative effects.

The increasingly frequent and severe weather events—droughts, floods, heat waves, heavy rains, and tropical cyclones—pose significant threats to biodiversity, food security, and human livelihoods.

The economic consequences of climate change in Africa are particularly severe, posing profound risks that threaten to undermine decades of development progress and exacerbate poverty and inequality across the continent.

Climate change is projected to have severe macroeconomic impacts on African economies as early as 2030, with the effects expected to intensify over time. In 2022, weather, climate, and water hazards directly affected more than 110 million individuals on the continent.

This is, resulting in economic losses exceeding US$8.5 billion. Of 5,000 fatalities, 48 percent were linked to drought and 43 percent

to flooding.

However, the actual toll is likely to be much higher due to underreporting.

Currently, the economic cost of climate-related disasters in Africa is estimated to be significant, with an annual financial burden estimated between US$7 billion and US$15 billion.

This is unfortunately, a cost that is projected to rise dramatically, potentially reaching US$50 billion a year by 2030.

These escalating costs, the report adds, will further drain resources that could otherwise be directed to economic development and poverty reduction.

In a report presented by Zodwa Mabuza, the UNECA Chief Sub-regional Initiative for the Southern Africa, during a lecturer before students of economics at University of Zambia, Mabuza attributed to climate change-induced instability in global commodity markets as threatening African economies.

The persistent effects may affect food production as the continent is heavily reliant on the export of agricultural products, minerals, and other natural resources.

“Fluctuations in commodity prices, driven by droughts, floods, and other extreme weather events, can lead to economic instability, reducing government revenues and heightening vulnerability.” She said.

In 2022, weather, climate, and water hazards directly affected more than 110 million individuals on the continent, resulting in economic losses exceeding US$8.5 billion.

Agriculture contributes significantly to GDP and employs a large portion of the population in many African countries and is highly vulnerable. Climate shocks have contributed to the decline in Africa’s productivity, down by more than 31 per cent since the 1960s.

Every degree of warming above historical levels is expected to lead to a 5 per cent decrease in crop productivity. Building resilience is therefore urgent, since studies show that a rise in temperatures of 2°C could reduce yields by up to a fifth.

Irrregular rainfall could lead to drought and famine.28 Temperature increases also affect agricultural production by fostering crop pests and diseases.

This in turn, heightening food insecurity, worsening existing economic vulnerabilities, threatening millions of livelihoods, and exacerbating poverty and inequality.

Climate change also affects Africa’s trade, particularly in regions dependent on exports of agricultural products, minerals, and other natural resources.

Fluctuations in global commodity prices, driven by climate-induced supply disruptions, can lead to economic instability, particularly with many African economies heavily reliant on a narrow range of export commodities.

Without significant investment in climate resilience and diversification, the continent’s economic stability could be at risk.

This calls for ‘greening Africa’s industrialization’ to achieve the type of structural transformation that yields sustainable and inclusive growth, thus creating jobs while safeguarding the productivity of natural resources.

Africa’s infrastructure is threatened too, particularly in rapidly urbanizing and coastal areas where rising sea levels and extreme weather events can cause substantial damage, especially in coastal cities, where much of Africa’s economic activity is concentrated.

The cost of climate-related infrastructure damage could reach US$4 billion annually by 2030 if adaptation measures are not implemented.

Such damage, UNECA adds, would not only strain national budgets but also hinder economic development and growth, particularly in rapidly urbanizing regions.

Economic threats due to risks of the US–China trade war escalation with China is Africa’s largest bilateral trade partner (US$282 billion in 2023).

This is, arguably, a major provider of development finance and an important source of FDI, reaching US$1.8 billion in 2022, up from US$75 million in 2003), so whatever happens to China would have knock-on effects on Africa.

Trade conflict between US and China, which had been ongoing since 2018, is an added risk to the escalation rose in early 2025.

After the Trump administration levied additional 10 per cent on Chinese imports effective February 4, China announced a 15 per cent tariff on US coal and liquefied natural gas, along with a 10 per cent tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery and some cars effective February 10.

Beyond US–China relations, President Trump’s team has been considering a variety of new tariffs for his second term starting in 2025, ranging from universal baseline tariffs to country-specific ones.

These ongoing skirmishes are concerning for the global economy and for Africa, including through their impacts on inflation, growth and employment.

The stakes are high. Already in 2019 it was estimated that trade tensions could cause a 2.5 per cent reduction in GDP in resource-intensive countries.

Apart from the trade war, China is experiencing an ageing population and a slowdown in economic growth.

That could push up labor costs as a result of the shrinking working age population. This situation should be an impetus for increased intra-African trade and realizing the huge potential of implementing the AfCFTA.