By Jeff Kapembwa
AFRICA’s food security is under-threaten and may force millions of inhabitants under acute hunger with the looming prices fertiliser-chiefly urea are focused to escalate above 70 percent by the close of the first quarter this year if the conflict between United States and Iran continues, analysts say.
The United Nations has warned of the consequences if the war is not quenched as soon as possible, warning that if left to the warring party to find durable solution an additional 45 million people chiefly in East and West Africa, may fall into acute hunger.
This, it fears could potentially cause a global food “catastrophe”. Prolonged fighting, specifically disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and surging energy/fertilizer costs, threatens to worsen food insecurity for 318 million people already affected globally.
Reminiscing the aftermath of the COVID 19 that claimed millions of people globally, coupled with the climate crisis, the Un calls for urgent interventions into the conflict with call to urgently open the straits of Hormuz and avert the military indifferences going into mid this year and destabilize the various economies and push the continent and the rest of the global order ‘offline’
A report by UN food agency-WFP, if the conflict lasts beyond mid-2026, the resulting economic destabilization could push global hunger to record levels. The blockade or restriction of shipping-chiefly fertiliser through the Strait of Hormuz is creating significant bottlenecks for global energy and agricultural supplies.
According to the report, up to 35% of the world’s urea supply imports, a key fertilizer ingredient, comes from the Gulf states, and shipments have been severely disrupted by the blockade of Hormuz.
It notes in its report that fertiliser market disruptions are already severely limiting supplies, which is expected to lower crop yields globally. Coincidentally, it argues, high oil and shipping prices are causing a “cascading effect” on food prices, driving up costs for staples, a fear for a repeat of the effects on humanity of the COVID 19.
The crisis is causing fertilizer shortages and disrupting key agricultural exports, severely affecting low-income countries. An immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is the ultimate and avoid a humanitarian catastrophe.
It warns of a scenario similar to the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, with “exponential” consequences rather than merely cumulative ones. It warns that should the conflict persist beyond now-food yields within and beyond Africa may escalate and result in lower than anticipated yields as imports are being determined by the cost of diesel, among other factors.
“Hormuz crisis strangling global economy, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres warns, while demanding solutions to end stalemate.
“High oil and shipping prices are causing a “cascading effect” on food prices, driving up costs for staples”
Further research gives another gloomy picture if the consequence of war with projections that African economies may lose 0.2 percentage points of GDP growth this year if the war persists beyond six months.
Low yields are imminent with farmers, particularly smallholders, using fertilizers imported from Middle East reduce usage, and could result in lower crop yields and higher food prices.
In East and Southern Africa, researchers argue are regions heavily exposed, with over 87 million people facing acute hunger. Countries with high dependence on imported fertilizer from the Gulf, such as Sudan, Tanzania, Kenya, and Mozambique, are particularly vulnerable.
Sudan’s 54% of its seaborne fertilizer imports originate in the Gulf, making it highly exposed to shortages.
Flowers from Kenya Flower-exported to various European countries and using such straits have been disrupted, with freight costs doubling and 20-25% of produce being dumped. South Africa, main supplier of various products to Europe, faces export setbacks.
The IRAN-US war which saw the first bullet fired on 28 February does not seem near the end. President Donald Trump while has indicating a desire to end the war with Iran, is concerned that part of the agreement to stop the war do not meet the expectations.
The U.S. and Iran are in negotiations to end the war, but a final deal has not been reached, with Trump rejecting a recent proposal from Tehran which does not discuss Iran having a nuclear weapon.
Despite claims of an end, reports indicate continued tension, including a U.S. attack on an Iranian cargo ship, continued drone/missile activity, and a potential resumption of conflict.
The primary stated objective was preventing Iran from having nuclear weapons, which Trump claims has been achieved.