The Looming El Nino, with 61 to 87 percent probability and perceived to extend through late 2026 and into 2027, threatens global food security with Southern, Eastern Africa and Asia likely to face severity of the weather induced crisis, World Bank projects.

The Bretton Woods institute in its latest report foresees food production deficits recorded citing the projected reduction in rainfall and drought triggered activities by El Nino likely to affect yields of rice, maize and other crops.

Reduction in rainfall patterns could negatively impact crop yields in vulnerable regions, chiefly Africa, still wallowing in various climatic headwinds. It is estimated that vital rice outputs could fall by 20 to 50 percent in severely affected areas.

The El Niño is compounding already fragile supply chains—strained by geopolitical conflicts and fertilizer costs—with fertilizer prices projected to jump an average of 31 percent during the period under review.

The World Bank, notes that geopolitical supply shocks are driving up global energy prices by 24% and pushing fertilizer costs up by 30-60%, making the 2026 planting season highly expensive, even for local farmers not directly hit by drought.

The financial Institution-World Bank notes that the compounding effects of El Niño have left several countries in East and Southern Africa dealing with persistently high, double-digit domestic food price inflation, a call or early action among African country than react.

The El Nino, a new shock to global food prices because of its weather conditions, risks piling pressure on agriculture from high fertilizer costs driven by the recurring Iran war, it says in in its latest forecasts for the world economy noting:

“Disruptive weather” associated with a warming in the Pacific Ocean could exacerbate strains on global food supplies caused by the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial channel for trade in fuel and fertiliser.

“Beyond developments in the Middle East, the possible emergence of El Niño weather conditions could push food prices above current expectations,” it said last Thursday.

In its latest forecasts for the world economy, the bank said “disruptive weather” associated with a warming in the Pacific Ocean could exacerbate strains on global food supplies caused by the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial channel for trade in fuel and fertiliser.

The bank predicts global growth slowing from 2.9 per cent in 2025 to 2.5 per cent in 2026 — the lowest rate of expansion since the Covid-19 pandemic. With the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declaring that El Niño conditions are now in place.

Economists fear the combined effect of reduced fertiliser use and extreme weather will heighten food insecurity and further stoke inflation.

The situation is worse for small economies in sub-Saharan because of their vulnerability, heightened by limited insurance on agriculture production, with many countries losing crops yearly, leaving their population hungry.

According to Africa Risk Capacity, last year, several African countries received a total of over US$14.8 million in parametric drought and crop damage insurance payouts.

Malawi received US$3,376,783; Lesotho, US$2,767,958, Mozambique, US$1,800,000, with an addition US$$3.1 million for tropical cyclone response. Madagascar got US$2,130,000. In Zambia, in 2024, ARC made a US$9,979,140 million climate risk insurance payout.

This follows severe drought conditions during the 2023/2024 agricultural season to support communities’ recovery from food insecurity and loss of livelihoods.

About 3,564,241 people in districts in Agro-ecological zones I and II were affected by this drought, triggering the payouts.

A total 62 insurance policies were signed in 2014 in cumulative insurance covers of US $720 million for the protection of 72 million vulnerable populations in participating countries.