By Happy Mulolani
Despite the devastating climatic shocks, which resulted in a severe drought in 2023/2024 farming season, thereby affecting many households in Zambia in 38 years, the country has managed to recover. This severe drought was followed by a record 3.6million metric tonnes of maize during the 2024/2025 farming season.
This, coupled by yet another historic bumper harvest for the 2025/2026 farming season recording 4.9million metric tonnes of maize.
In an announcement during the official dissemination of Crop Forecast 2026 by Zambia Statistics Agency, Statistician General, Sheila Mudenda, revealed the country has recorded 4.9million metric tonnes of maize for the 2025/2026 farming, which positions the country in a food secure status.
In his official statement, Secretary to the Cabinet, Patrick Kangwa, thanked the Ministry of Agriculture and all players for the collaboration in ensuring farmers contributed to increased food production.
Mr Kangwa pointed out, the 2023/2024 farming season was one of the affected with the climate disaster which witnessed drastic food output reduced by 1.5million tonnes of maize.
He commended farmers for responding to increased agricultural production through expanding their area under cultivation and improved crop productivity.
“We are highly confident in successfully achieving our national targets of producing 10million metric tonnes of maize, 3million metric tonnes of soyabean, and 1million metric tonnes of wheat annually by 2031. These targets clearly demonstrate government’s commitment to transforming Zambia into a regional food basket and a major agricultural export hub,” he stated.
Mr Kangwa explained government is committed towards “consistent policy reforms, expanded irrigation investments, increased mechanization, enhanced access to finance, improved extension services, and the creation of a stable and predictable market environment for our farmers.”
Mr Kangwa called on stakeholders to remain resolute in view of the expected crisis as government positions itself in providing an enabling environment aimed at protecting the environment at the same time promoting climate smart agriculture to guarantee food security to the country’s populace.
“Current meteorological projections indicate a higher likelihood of below-average rainfall for the upcoming 2026/2027 agricultural season,” he said.
Mr Kangwa reiterated, the projections will inform the inter-ministerial policy adjustments and budgetary exercises.
These results come at a critical time as they provide a blueprint which aim at accelerating agro-processing, drive rural development, and restore Zambia’s status as a sustainable regional breadbasket.
As concerns of the anticipated El Nino grow wider, speaking during the launch of SOFF, a weather detector, Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit’s National Coordinator, Norman Chipakupaku, cautioned of a looming El Nino driven crisis likely to threaten food security.
And Zambia Meteorological Department confirmed the country is likely to be hit by the El Nino weather phenomenon which might occur between May and August, this year and persist to early months of 2027.
“Currently, an 80 percent chance of El Nino conditions are developing during the projected period,” Senior Meteorologist, Victor Bupe, said.
Despite the country achieving a double bumper harvest in successive years, after the worst ever drought, the El Nino phenomenon poses yet another food output threat to the country.
This possible El Nino is likely to stifle the country’s efforts of achieving the set targets of 10million metric tonnes of maize by 2031. To this end, government’s call for adequate preparedness of all key stakeholders and players will help insulate the country from food insecurity.